The short answer is yes, of course there is a path to victory for the McCain campaign. The polls are all over the map and are not particularly reliable. One of the most accurate during the last presidential race follows. The reality is that the disparity in the polling illustrates the fact that this contest in wholly unpredictable. Of interest in the poll linked below is the large percentage of undecideds. If anywhere near accurate, this race remains wide open.
McCain has gained some advantages not normally available to a Republican candidate, and in particular to his candidacy. Some are listed here and, although how they will breakout in the final analysis remains to be seen, they do represent part of the path his campaign can follow to victory.
1. CATHOLIC VOTE: Not normally a very helpful factor for Republicans, this year has shaped up as an exception. A notable number of Bishops have made public statements on both candidates and issues. The Joe Biden and Nancy Pelosi commentary on the nature of church doctrine relative to abortion has hurt Obama. Both have been dead wrong and both have been admonished publicly. Further, Obama's position as an Illinois State legislator about partial birth abortion and a post birth form of euthanasia have damaged his standing among Catholics. It is important to note that this faction includes 'family values' Hispanics, which is a large component of the Hispanic population in America. As a result, McCain has gained some standing with this large Catholic segment of voters.
2. SMALL BUSINESS OWNERS: The Obama tax plan and his comments about "spreading the wealth" have seriously damaged him with these voters. Keep in mind that our economy is build on the backs of small business and these people are literally everywhere. Additionally, the attacks by the Democrat party and the Obama surrogates on Joe the plumber have backfired on candidate Obama and cost him dearly with this large constituency. Make sure to include in this faction the majority of medical professionals, even if they do not run their own practices. The Obama health care proposals are not popular among those in the health professions. This group represents another McCain advantage.
3. MODERATE UNION MEMBERS: Many of these voters have, in the past, been referred to as "Reagan Democrats". These are hard working Americans who belong to unions but do not like the fact that their dues are used for political purposes without their permission. Worse yet, the Democrat promise to eliminate the secret ballot voting process during union elections is anathema to these voters. What they openly state about who they will vote for come November 4th, and who they will actually vote for in the privacy of the voting booth are often two separate and distinct realities. McCain will enjoy some gains in what is often mistakenly perceived as a solid Democrat voting bloc.
4. HARD RIGHT CONSERVATIVES: This is not, as some might expect, a strong pro-McCain group. As a matter of fact, many on the far right cannot stand McCain. But there are two factors that come into play with this gang that tilt the scale to McCain's favor. One is VP candidate Sarah Palin, a favorite with the far right. The other is Barack Obama, the most far left major party candidate in American history. Combined, these twin forces will guarantee that most on the far right will do as McCain's mother said they would some time ago: "Hold their nose and vote for John McCain".
5. JOE LIBERMAN DEMOCRATS: It is hard to tell any more where these folks have gone. They have definitely been abandoned by the hard left turn engineered within the Democrat party. It is no longer the party of John Kennedy when the leading lights are Nancy Pelosi, Harry Reid, Howard Dean and Barack Obama. The moderate Dems are without a party candidate and this is a group that the McCain campaign has focused upon from the get go. McCain will gain ground here because his politics are closer to where this group falls than is the politics of Obama.
6. PRO-ISRAEL AMERICAN JEWS: At this time in history, it seems that the penchant among Jews to automatically vote Democrat is as misdirected as possible. Yet they continue to do so. However, a small but potentially significant inroad has been generated there, to the benefit of McCain. It centers on the fully contradictory statements from Obama as to his support for Israel. Where he actually stands is an unknown, as is the case with other issues. Where McCain stands is clear and unambiguous. As a result, McCain has gained some traction here which can be a notable factor in states like Florida.
7. PALIN CANDIDACY: In spite of all the wailing and gnashing of teeth among the big biased media, east coast elites and beltway insiders, the choice of Sarah Palin has generated gigantic interest and energy in the McCain campaign. He has gained greatly from her choice and the truth is that those, like Colin Powell, who claim her candidacy was a game breaker for them, were for Obama all along. The fact is that a case can be made that the Biden choice is much more of a game breaker since he is about as far left as Obama, leaving moderate Democrats without representation on the ticket. Both VP choices end up accruing to the benefit of McCain.
The Obama campaign has pursued and is pursuing a strategy to build the perception that his election has been decided and thus stampede the herd in their favor. Apparently, it is not working. How the vote will come out remains to be seen and there are far too many forces in play for anyone or any poll to accurately predict the final result.
But there is one thing for sure: McCain has a path to victory.
IBD/TIPP Tracking Poll: Day Thirteen
Posted: Saturday, October 25, 2008
Posted: Saturday, October 25, 2008
The race showed little change Saturday, with Obama edging up 0.4 points as he stretched his lead with single women, regained momentum among $30,000 to $50,000 earners and halted his slippage among parents. McCain took his first lead with married women, a traditional GOP constituency. Undecideds ticked up, notably among independents and union households.
View Results From Prior Days
About IBD/TIPP: An analysis of Final Certified Results for the 2004 election showed IBD's polling partner, TIPP, was the most accurate pollster of the campaign season. Learn more at www.TIPPonline.com.
SEE THE DETAILS OF THE POLL HERE: http://www.ibdeditorials.com/Polls.aspx?id=309812049219176#pollaSphere: Related Content